Monday, August 13, 2007

Looking For Help

The major stock market benchmarks are little changed since last Thursday's big drop. This may have something to do with the Federal Reserve's decision to provide extra liquidity in the bond market. The European Central Bank made a similar move the day before. The amounts involved are not huge in the grand scheme of things. Yet such actions have symbolic value in reminding traders that the central banks aren't asleep at the wheel.

Pundits in the media continue to snipe at the Fed for not cutting rates at last week's policy meeting, and many are now calling for Bernanke to take the unusual step of announcing a rate cut before the next regular meeting, scheduled for Sept. 18th. We suspect this is wishful thinking. First, Bernanke does not seem to be terribly concerned about pleasing the media, or Wall Street for that matter. He has the bigger picture in mind. Second, the Fed's job is to maintain a balance between inflation and recession. Years of strong economic activity and historically high energy prices give Bernanke little room to maneuver on the inflation side of the ledger. If he has to choose, we suspect it will be in favor of slowing down the economy. That argues against lower interest rates. At this stage a rate cut would simply trade short-term relief for more long-term pain.

A look at our Fidelity Select rankings today is interesting. First, notice how the various financial services sector funds are clustered at the bottom of the list. Banks, brokers and mortgage lenders have been decimated in the last few weeks. Fortunately we haven't had any exposure to that group. Only two funds have a 15-day return that is greater than zero. One is a money market fund. The other is Fidelity Select Medical Equipment (FSMEX).

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